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房价泡沫的本质是地价泡沫

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月16日 18:03:14
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(0亿)(元)(,占)(全)(国)(土)(地)(总)(成)(交)(额)(的)(7成)(,同)(比)(上)(升)(280%;二)(线)(城)(市)(的)(成)(交)(楼)(面)(均)(价)(同)(比)(暴)(涨)(180%。  在)(一)(些)(地)(区)(,新)(地)(王)(的)(楼)(板)(价)(已)(经)(超)(过)(现)(在)(一)(手)(房)(的)(房)(价)(,比)(如)(5月)(18日)(保)(利)(以)(54.5亿)(元)(竞)(得)(浦)(东)(周)(浦)(镇)(一)(地)(块)(,溢)(价)(297.8%。业)(内)(人)(士)(估)(算)(,未)(来)(售)(价)(可)(能)(超)(过)(7.5万)(,而)(目)(前)(该)(区)(域)(新)(房)(售)(价)(在)(3.3万)(-4.4万)(。这)(种)(现)(象)(制)(造)(了)(强)(烈)(的)(上)(涨)(预)(期)(。可)(以)(说)(,现)(在)(中)(国)(地)(产)(市)(场)(已)(经)(属)(于)(“地)(价)(泡)(沫)(”的)(阶)(段)(。  地)(价)(泡)(沫)(现)(象)(如)(何)(产)(生)(的)(呢)(?毫)(无)(疑)(问)(是)(供)(给)(侧)(与)(需)(求)(侧)(同)(时)(发)(力)(造)(成)(的)(。首)(先)(,一)(些)(地)(方)(政)(府)(趁)(楼)(价)(上)(涨)(提)(高)(基)(准)(地)(价)(,有)(的)(甚)(至)(涨)(幅)(超)(过)(一)(倍)(,推)(动)(了)(地)(价)(上)(涨)(,并)(且)(政)(府)(还)(控)(制)(供)(给)(数)(量)(,制)(造)(稀)(缺)(效)(应)(。现)(在)(,一)(些)(高)(地)(价)(城)(市)(已)(经)(开)(始)(冻)(结)(土)(地)(市)(场)(供)(应)(,这)(无)(疑)(会)(火)(上)(浇)(油)(。  而)(在)(需)(求)(侧)(,由)(于)(这)(一)(轮)(涨)(价)(去)(库)(存)(来)(势)(凶)(猛)(,房)(企)(需)(要)(补)(充)(新)(的)(土)(地)(开)(发)(新)(项)(目)(。由)(于)(银)(行)(利)(率)(不)(断)(下)(降)(,而)(且)(实)(体)(经)(济)(下)(行)(导)(致)(社)(会)(融)(资)(成)(本)(也)(随)(之)(走)(低)(,房)(地)(产)(被)(视)(为)(低)(风)(险)(的)(项)(目)(,在)(资)(产)(荒)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,各)(种)(提)(供)(融)(资)(的)(机)(构)(主)(动)(为)(地)(产)(商)(提)(供)(低)(价)(信)(贷)(,导)(致)(房)(企)(“不)(缺)(钱)(而)(是)(缺)(项)(目)(”,这)(鼓)(励)(了)(企)(业)(高)(价)(抢)(地)(。  过)(去)(十)(几)(年)(的)(经)(验)(显)(示)(,总)(是)(通)(过)(各)(种)(调)(控)(保)(持)(房)(价)(稳)(定)(上)(涨)(,过)(高)(时)(抑)(制)(,库)(存)(增)(加)(时)(就)(刺)(激)(。一)(般)(常)(用)(的)(政)(策)(工)(具)(就)(是)(土)(地)(供)(应)(以)(及)(信)(贷)(利)(率)(。从)(土)(地)(价)(格)(不)(断)(上)(涨)(看)(,地)(方)(政)(府)(对)(土)(地)(财)(政)(过)(度)(依)(赖)(而)(难)(以)(自)(拔)(,这)(种)(通)(过)(控)(制)(土)(地)(供)(应)(不)(断)(推)(高)(地)(价)(的)(方)(式)(,是)(过)(去)(十)(几)(年)(房)(价)(不)(断)(上)(涨)(的)(重)(要)(原)(因)(。  因)(此)(,中)(国)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(的)(本)(质)(是)(“土)(地)(泡)(沫)(”,是)(地)(方)(政)(府)(为)(了)(自)(身)(利)(益)(而)(控)(制)(市)(场)(的)(结)(果)(。地)(方)(政)(府)(通)(过)(计)(划)(经)(济)(式)(的)(土)(地)(供)(应)(模)(式)(,以)(及)(销)(售)(端)(的)(限)(购)(限)(价)(,维)(持)(了)(资)(产)(价)(格)(不)(断)(上)(涨)(,但)(是)(,这)(会)(让)(价)(格)(脱)(离)(真)(实)(的)(市)(场)(需)(求)(而)(发)(生)(扭)(曲)(,这)(种)(扭)(曲)(又)(会)(绑)(架)(楼)(市)(政)(策)(,乃)(至)(整)(个)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(政)(策)(,导)(致)(经)(济)(更)(加)(失)(衡)(。  地)(方)(政)(府)(过)(度)(依)(赖)(地)(产)(并)(维)(持)(价)(格)(持)(续)(增)(长)(的)(方)(式)(类)(似)(饮)(鸩)(止)(渴)(。除)(了)(加)(剧)(经)(济)(结)(构)(失)(衡)(、推)(高)(资)(产)(泡)(沫)(之)(外)(,还)(会)(产)(生)(两)(种)(弊)(端)(。首)(先)(,房)(价)(长)(期)(且)(持)(续)(不)(断)(的)(上)(涨)(,会)(造)(成)(严)(重)(的)(贫)(富)(差)(距)(,尤)(其)(是)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(的)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(,让)(那)(些)(早)(就)(购)(买)(住)(房)(的)(市)(民)(财)(富)(暴)(增)(,而)(那)(些)(还)(没)(有)(能)(力)(购)(买)(的)(市)(民)(可)(能)(永)(远)(都)(无)(力)(购)(买)(,或)(者)(做)(一)(辈)(子)(房)(奴)(。根)(据)(联)(合)(国)(亚)(太)(经)(社)(会)(刚)(刚)(发)(布)(的)(报)(告)(显)(示)(,2002-2010年)(间)(,中)(国)(贫)(富)(差)(距)(的)(增)(加)(,97%由)(金)(融)(与)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(的)(价)(格)(提)(升)(所)(导)(致)(。  第)(二)(个)(弊)(端)(就)(是)(窒)(息)(城)(市)(发)(展)(活)(力)(。按)(照)(现)(在)(新)(出)(让)(地)(价)(计)(算)(,一)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(将)(很)(快)(追)(赶)(上)(香)(港)(。中)(国)(大)(部)(分)(科)(研)(机)(构)(与)(企)(业)(聚)(集)(在)(一)(线)(城)(市)(,过)(高)(的)(房)(价)(提)(高)(年)(轻)(人)(在)(一)(线)(城)(市)(发)(展)(的)(成)(本)(,研)(究)(机)(构)(也)(很)(难)(招)(到)(人)(才)(。房)(价)(泡)(沫)(化)(会)(让)(政)(府)(进)(退)(两)(难)(,如)(果)(维)(持)(居)(高)(不)(下)(的)(价)(格)(,中)(国)(最)(具)(活)(力)(与)(创)(造)(力)(的)(一)(线)(城)(市)(将)(可)(能)(面)(临)(活)(力)(流)(失)(,阻)(碍)(经)(济)(转)(型)(,但)(是)(,如)(果)(刺)(破)(房)(价)(泡)(沫)(化)(,又)(会)(对)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(构)(成)(巨)(大)(的)(影)(响)(。  近)(日)(,“权)(威)(人)(士)(”提)(出)(“房)(子)(是)(给)(人)(住)(的)(,这)(个)(定)(位)(不)(能)(偏)(离)(”,这)(是)(正)(本)(清)(源)(的)(观)(点)(,但)(是)(在)(执)(行)(上)(,各)(地)(此)(起)(彼)(伏)(的)(地)(王)(以)(及)(随)(之)(而)(来)(的)(土)(地)(供)(应)(收)(紧)(显)(示)(,地)(方)(政)(府)(还)(没)(有)(找)(到)(摆)(脱)(土)(地)(财)(政)(的)(有)(效)(手)(段)(,二)(线)(城)(市)(收)(紧)(土)(地)(供)(应)(只)(会)(制)(造)(更)(广)(泛)(的)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(,导)(致)(二)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(一)(线)(化)(,控)(制)(市)(场)(的)(做)(法)(最)(终)(会)(伤)(及)(自)(身)(。
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