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为什么拍牌不能解决拥堵问题

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月16日 18:27:24
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(  人)(们)(总)(能)(从)(现)(实)(中)(找)(到)(历)(史)(的)(影)(子)(。上)(海)(是)(中)(国)(第)(一)(个)(发)(放)(汽)(车)(牌)(照)(的)(城)(市)(,车)(牌)(从)(它)(诞)(生)(的)(第)(一)(天)(起)(就)(不)(是)(免)(费)(的)(。  1901年)(,当)(第)(一)(辆)(汽)(车)(进)(入)(上)(海)(时)(,挂)(的)(是)(马)(车)(的)(牌)(照)(,按)(马)(车)(的)(标)(准)(收)(费)(。  1910年)(,汽)(车)(牌)(照)(开)(始)(独)(立)(编)(号)(,收)(费)(有)(“牌)(照)(费)(”和)(“季)(捐)(费)(”两)(种)((相)(当)(于)(固)(定)(费)(和)(使)(用)(费)(),季)(捐)(费)(按)(不)(同)(的)(用)(途)(收)(取)(,自)(备)(车)(白)(银)(5两)(,出)(差)(车)(15两)(。  1912年)(,上)(海)(已)(有)(汽)(车)(1400辆)(,当)(时)(租)(界)(的)(管)(理)(机)(构)(工)(部)(局)(按)(照)(欧)(美)(的)(管)(理)(模)(式)(,正)(式)(为)(汽)(车)(发)(放)(牌)(照)(,特)(地)(留)(出)(一)(些)(特)(殊)(号)(码)(以)(高)(价)(出)(售)(。  上)(世)(纪)(20年)(代)(,上)(海)(登)(记)(的)(小)(汽)(车)(达)(2.1万)(余)(辆)(,与)(欧)(美)(的)(次)(大)(城)(市)(持)(平)(。上)(海)(市)(政)(府)(开)(始)(系)(统)(化)(地)(对)(特)(殊)(号)(码)(车)(牌)(用)(拍)(卖)(的)(形)(式)(进)(行)(销)(售)(,某)(些)(号)(码)(的)(成)(交)(价)(格)(高)(达)(二)(十)(至)(三)(十)(两)(黄)(金)(。  当)(我)(们)(回)(顾)(这)(段)(历)(史)(时)(,可)(以)(清)(晰)(看)(到)(,在)(寸)(土)(寸)(金)(的)(上)(海)(,城)(市)(管)(理)(者)(从)(一)(开)(始)(就)(把)(汽)(车)(牌)(照)(当)(作)(管)(理)(机)(动)(车)(和)(获)(得)(财)(政)(收)(入)(的)(手)(段)(。当)(时)(的)(工)(部)(局)(由)(英)(国)(人)(把)(持)(,所)(以)(和)(小)(汽)(车)(一)(样)(,车)(牌)(拍)(卖)(的)(点)(子)(也)(是)(“舶)(来)(”的)(。  当)(新)(中)(国)(改)(革)(开)(放)(后)(,1986年)(上)(海)(拍)(卖)(第)(一)(块)(“沪)(Z”牌)(照)(时)(,采)(用)(的)(是)(10万)(元)(有)(底)(价)(、不)(公)(开)(拍)(卖)(的)(形)(式)(。直)(到)(2000年)(时)(,为)(配)(合)(汽)(车)(产)(业)(的)(发)(展)(,这)(项)(政)(策)(改)(革)(为)(面)(向)(更)(多)(市)(民)(的)(“无)(底)(价)(”竞)(购)(。由)(此)(,小)(汽)(车)(开)(始)(更)(为)(容)(易)(地)(进)(入)(到)(千)(家)(万)(户)(,上)(海)(也)(迈)(入)(汽)(车)(时)(代)(,当)(然)(,同)(时)(也)(迎)(来)(了)(各)(种)(城)(市)(痼)(疾)(的)(挑)(战)(,其)(中)(包)(括)(交)(通)(拥)(堵)(问)(题)(。  从)(实)(践)(上)(看)(,像)(车)(牌)(拍)(卖)(这)(样)(的)(“源)(头)(”管)(理)(,帮)(助)(上)(海)(阶)(段)(性)(地)(减)(缓)(了)(机)(动)(车)(总)(量)(的)(增)(速)(。相)(比)(实)(施)(车)(牌)(摇)(号)(之)(前)(的)(北)(京)(,2010年)(上)(海)(的)(机)(动)(车)(总)(量)(是)(310万)(辆)(,而)(北)(京)(为)(480万)(辆)(,上)(海)(的)(机)(动)(车)(增)(速)(仅)(为)(北)(京)(的)(一)(半)(。如)(果)(没)(有)(实)(施)(多)(年)(的)(车)(牌)(拍)(卖)(政)(策)(,上)(海)(的)(车)(会)(更)(多)(,路)(会)(更)(堵)(,雾)(霾)(会)(更)(严)(重)(,交)(通)(事)(故)(的)(累)(计)(死)(伤)(人)(数)(也)(会)(更)(多)(。  笔)(者)(从)(事)(交)(通)(研)(究)(近)(20年)(,这)(几)(年)(开)(始)(关)(注)(上)(海)(车)(牌)(额)(度)(拍)(卖)(政)(策)(。每)(年)(参)(加)(各)(种)(学)(术)(会)(议)(时)(,会)(议)(交)(流)(中)(经)(常)(遇)(到)(类)(似)(的)(问)(题)(:  国)(内)(同)(行)((以)(北)(京)(同)(行)(为)(代)(表)()喜)(欢)(这)(样)(评)(论)(:“上)(海)(实)(施)(车)(牌)(拍)(卖)(20多)(年)(,怎)(么)(交)(通)(还)(这)(么)(拥)(堵)(啊)(?”  国)(际)(同)(行)(则)(大)(胆)(建)(议)(:“如)(果)(你)(能)(告)(诉)(我)(们)(,车)(牌)(拍)(卖)(到)(底)(多)(大)(程)(度)(上)(缓)(解)(了)(交)(通)(拥)(堵)(,这)(对)(西)(方)(城)(市)(的)(交)(通)(管)(理)(将)(具)(有)(重)(要)(意)(义)(。”  专)(家)(们)(所)(提)(出)(的)(问)(题)(,或)(多)(或)(少)(将)(车)(牌)(拍)(卖)(与)(交)(通)(拥)(堵)(联)(系)(起)(来)(,直)(观)(地)(认)(为)(它)(们)(应)(具)(有)(一)(定)(的)(因)(果)(关)(系)(。好)(像)(实)(施)(了)(车)(牌)(拍)(卖)(,交)(通)(拥)(堵)(就)(理)(应)(改)(善)(;如)(果)(不)(改)(善)(,那)(么)(这)(个)(政)(策)(的)(效)(果)(就)(不)(好)(,应)(该)(考)(虑)(它)(的)(废)(止)(。  但)(实)(际)(上)(,笔)(者)(认)(为)(,车)(牌)(拍)(卖)(与)(交)(通)(拥)(堵)(还)(真)(没)(有)(严)(格)(意)(义)(上)(的)(直)(接)(关)(系)(,迄)(今)(为)(止)(,严)(谨)(的)(学)(术)(研)(究)(尚)(未)(证)(实)(它)(们)(存)(在)(一)(定)(的)(关)(联)(性)(。如)(同)(上)(世)(纪)(初)(那)(样)(,车)(牌)(拍)(卖)(政)(策)(主)(要)(用)(来)(管)(理)(机)(动)(车)(的)(“拥)(有)(”环)(节)(,就)(像)(给)(车)(辆)(“上)(户)(口)(”,从)(源)(头)(上)(控)(制)(城)(市)(机)(动)(车)(的)(总)(量)(,同)(时)(为)(政)(府)(取)(得)(一)(定)(的)(财)(政)(收)(入)(。既)(然)(它)(没)(有)(调)(控)(人)(们)(“使)(用)(”车)(辆)(的)(初)(衷)(,因)(此)(必)(然)(无)(法)(得)(到)(调)(节)(交)(通)(拥)(堵)(这)(个)(“善)(果)(”。  从)(微)(观)(上)(看)(,人)(们)(拥)(有)(车)(辆)(和)(使)(用)(车)(辆)(这)(两)(种)(行)(为)(之)(间)(,虽)(然)(前)(者)(可)(能)(成)(为)(后)(者)(的)(必)(要)(条)(件)((先)(买)(车)(,然)(后)(开)(车)(),但)(它)(们)(不)(存)(在)(一)(种)(必)(然)(的)(相)(关)(性)(:拥)(车)(可)(以)((多)()用)(车)(,拥)(车)(也)(可)(以)(不)((或)(少)()用)(车)(;相)(反)(,用)(车)(也)(可)(以)(完)(全)(不)(拥)(车)(,比)(如)(租)(车)(或)(车)(辆)(共)(享)((Car-sharing)。  从)(宏)(观)(上)(看)(,一)(个)(城)(市)(拥)(车)(的)(比)(例)(越)(高)(,是)(否)(使)(用)(频)(率)(就)(一)(定)(会)(高)(,交)(通)(就)(一)(定)(会)(拥)(堵)(?相)(反)(,如)(果)(拥)(车)(率)(越)(低)(,使)(用)(频)(率)(就)(越)(不)(会)(高)(,交)(通)(就)(越)(不)(会)(拥)(堵)(?这)(样)(的)(推)(理)(显)(然)(不)(太)(成)(立)(,现)(实)(中)(也)(总)(能)(找)(到)(反)(例)(。比)(如)(,有)(的)(城)(市)(虽)(然)(车)(辆)(总)(数)(不)(多)(,但)(由)(于)(城)(市)(空)(间)(布)(局)(的)(影)(响)(,部)(分)(道)(路)(高)(峰)(时)(段)(仍)(会)(相)(当)(拥)(堵)(;又)(比)(如)(,东)(京)(的)(车)(辆)(拥)(有)(率)(在)(亚)(洲)(城)(市)(中)(相)(对)(较)(高)(,但)(由)(于)(先)(进)(的)(交)(通)(管)(理)(以)(及)(人)(们)(普)(遍)(采)(用)(公)(交)(通)(勤)(,城)(市)(的)(拥)(堵)(程)(度)(并)(不)(十)(分)(严)(重)(。  如)(果)(一)(定)(要)(将)(车)(牌)(拍)(卖)(与)(交)(通)(拥)(堵)(相)(联)(系)(,就)(好)(像)(在)(问)(:“中)(国)(实)(施)(人)(口)(计)(划)(生)(育)(政)(策)(几)(十)(年)(了)(,为)(什)(么)(上)(海)(南)(京)(路)(的)(人)(还)(总)(是)(这)(么)(多)(呢)(”,有)(点)(让)(人)(啼)(笑)(皆)(非)(。  因)(此)(,“拍)(卖)(”和)(“拥)(堵)(”是)(两)(件)(很)(难)(找)(到)(确)(定)(关)(系)(的)(事)(务)(,一)(个)(是)(城)(市)(车)(辆)(的)(管)(理)(办)(法)(,另)(一)(个)(是)(如)(“过)(街)(老)(鼠)(,人)(人)(喊)(打)(”的)(城)(市)(痼)(疾)(。从)(西)(方)(城)(市)(的)(发)(展)(史)(来)(看)(,如)(果)(一)(个)(城)(市)(的)(拥)(车)(率)(很)(高)(,人)(们)(又)(相)(当)(依)(赖)(机)(动)(车)(出)(行)(的)(话)((比)(如)(美)(国)(洛)(杉)(矶)(),那)(么)(这)(个)(城)(市)(的)(交)(通)(一)(定)(会)(很)(拥)(堵)(。美)(国)(城)(市)(机)(动)(化)(的)(经)(验)(教)(训)(,足)(以)(让)(今)(天)(的)(中)(国)(城)(市)(警)(醒)(:在)(机)(动)(车)(变)(成)(人)(们)(出)(行)(的)(刚)(性)(需)(求)(之)(前)(,政)(府)(一)(定)(要)(运)(用)(公)(共)(政)(策)(手)(段)(,及)(早)(地)(对)(人)(们)(“拥)(车)(”和)(“用)(车)(”行)(为)(予)(以)(充)(分)(干)(预)(。  干)(预)(有)(很)(多)(种)(办)(法)(:增)(加)(公)(交)(的)(供)(给)(,保)(证)(公)(交)(的)(方)(便)(、快)(捷)(、可)(承)(受)(,加)(大)(公)(交)(的)(吸)(引)(力)(和)(竞)(争)(力)(;从)(时)(间)(和)(空)(间)(上)(,逐)(步)(限)(制)(轿)(车)(的)(拥)(有)(和)(使)(用)(,持)(续)(征)(税)(和)(收)(费)(,缩)(减)(中)(心)(城)(区)(的)(停)(车)(位)(,收)(取)(高)(额)(的)(停)(车)(费)(和)(拥)(堵)(费)(等)(。甚)(至)(交)(通)(拥)(堵)(自)(身)(也)(可)(以)(减)(少)(轿)(车)(出)(行)(的)(意)(愿)(,当)(城)(市)(拥)(堵)(到)(难)(以)(为)(继)(的)(程)(度)(,产)(生)(的)(社)(会)(成)(本)(足)(够)(大)(时)(,也)(许)(人)(们)(会)(自)(发)(地)(放)(弃)(或)(减)(少)(轿)(车)(出)(行)(。  所)(有)(这)(些)(自)(然)(的)(过)(程)(和)(不)(自)(然)(的)(干)(预)(,都)(需)(要)(人)(们)(理)(性)(地)(配)(合)(,不)(然)(任)(何)(干)(预)(都)(会)(无)(功)(而)(返)(,甚)(至)(适)(得)(其)(反)(。而)(提)(升)(人)(们)(理)(性)(的)(整)(体)(水)(平)(,最)(有)(效)(的)(方)(法)(莫)(过)(于)(积)(极)(的)(宣)(传)(、广)(泛)(的)(教)(育)(和)(耐)(心)(的)(引)(导)(。在)(这)(个)(意)(义)(上)(,中)(国)(的)(“无)(车)(日)(”不)(是)(太)(多)(,而)(是)(太)(少)(。  笔)(者)(相)(信)(,经)(过)(多)(年)(来)(对)(机)(动)(化)(的)(深)(刻)(反)(思)(,中)(国)(很)(多)(城)(市)(已)(经)(行)(进)(在)(正)(确)(的)(道)(路)(上)(。  (作)(者)(系)(上)(海)(财)(经)(大)(学)(公)(共)(政)(策)(与)(治)(理)(研)(究)(院)(副)(教)(授)()  作)(者)(:冯)(苏)(苇)(
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